Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 9, where we dissect the biggest narratives from the NFL season. Week 8 gave us plenty to overreact to… so let’s get overreacting.
Cedric Tillman Is a Weekly Flex Option ROS
Though he had a great Week 8 and a very good Week 7, this is a no from me, Dawgs.
Outdated references aside, Tillman has been awesome since Amari left town:
The Cooper correlation is a direct result of a massive jump in playing time as Tillman has proven to be the Amari replacement in Cleveland. But what’s more interesting is that, with Deshaun Watson down for the year, James Winston’s devil-may-care style of play pairs perfectly with Tillman’s deep-threat, jump-ball profile.
And still, I’m relegating Tillman to my fantasy bench most weeks going forward due to the Browns’ schedule.
The Chargers, a bye, the Saints and Steelers await over the next month. Then it’s Broncos, Steelers again and the Chiefs before Cincy and Miami make things easier for the Browns O in the fantasy playoffs. I like Tillman’s flex appeal, but it’ll be hard to know when to plug him in going forward.
Bottom Line: Tillman has been great since Cooper’s departure, but I’m wary of his future production and selling him now for top dollar
Joe Mixon Is THE RB1 for the Foreseeable Future
No, but he’s still looking like a top 6 option the rest of the way.
The only thing preventing Mixon’s league destruction are tough matchups against the Jets, Lions and Chiefs throughout his remaining 8 games. Otherwise, he should dominate, just like he has been:
Assuming health, there’s little stop Mixon from continuing to soak up all the usage and rack up fantasy points. You’re starting him every week as your RB1 from here on out, and banking on a few more multi-touchdown games to take you to the promised land.
Bottom Line: Mixon likely won’t be THE RB1, but he is A (high-end) RB1 for the rest of the season. Sit back and enjoy the production… and go get him on your contending rosters
The Ultimate TD Vulture Remains Raheem Mostert
This is true, but it’s not all bad for Achane… or for Mostert.
Mostert is stealing all of your potential additional De’Von Achane scores, but both backs can coexist in a once-again dynamic Dolphins offense. With Tua Tagovailoa back slinging the rock, everyone is viable in The Magic City. But that’s especially true of Miami’s one-two punch at RB:
Now this stat also coincides with Tua games for Achane, so it’s hard to pin Achane’s success solely on Mostert’s activity. But it also makes sense. We’ve seen plenty of efficiency monsters at RB falter with an increased workload, especially when asked to punch it between the tackles.
For Achane to be his best self, Mostert’s workload needs to continue to operate at 50% and needs to continue to be on short yardage plays. That will, once again, sap Achane’s weekly TD upside, but it’ll keep him fresh to rack up the yards while Mostert racks up the TDs when all are healthy.
Bottom Line: Mostert will score plenty when in the game, but Achane also wins. The Dolphins offense as a whole is dynamic enough to support both backs, just as it did last season
The Cade Otton Breakout Is Upon Us
There is no question… absolutely.
In case you haven’t been paying attention, Otton has been utilized a ton this season. But what has come his way over the last two weeks absent Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is an insane goal line role alongside an uptick in targets. And, he’s the clear #1 target in Tampa:
This combination of factors makes for fantasy gold, and Otton is the lotto ticket you’ll want to cash in in 2024. The TE5 and TE1 in back-to-back weeks pending Monday night, Otton has been aided by also being the best goal line option for the Bucs. His size should help managers have more certainty in his red zone role going forward while his target percentage helps raise his floor.
I expect Otton to regress slightly over the next two weeks against Kansas City and San Francisco, but his schedule after a Week 11 bye looks to be the best of any TE in fantasy. Buy in!
Bottom Line: Otton has already broken out, but a buy window could emerge over the next 3 weeks. Monitor the situation and strike, unless you already have him. Then, just profit
Bo Nix Will Carry You to a Fantasy Championship in 2024
Somehow… it’s possible.
Nix is the fantasy QB9 right now, and only Jayden Daniels ranks ahead of him among rookie single callers. This is partly because Nix has faced some easy matchups over the past few weeks. But it’s also because of what he provides as a rusher. In fact, Nix averages 6.5 rushes, for 32 and 0.5 touchdowns per game this season. But, over the last month, he’s been limiting mistakes and making big plays.
So much so, in fact, that… well… this:
It’s crazy to think that Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts haven’t scored as many fantasy points than Nix over the four-week span highlighted by Kluge. But it’s also crazy to think that Nix has been the QB8, 9, 18 and 2 over the same stretch.
Head Coach Sean Payton has been letting Nix air it out, and Nix has responded with a ton of reality and fantasy points. He’s also won 3 of those 4 contests.
The Broncos may not be contenders all season, but right now they’re 5-3 and they’ve been competitive in all three of their losses. Winners of 5 of their last 6 games, Denver will make a push to make the playoffs. And that should keep Nix slinging it all year long. Buy in, especially with the Colts, Chargers and Bengals as opponents in the fantasy playoffs.
Bottom Line: Nix has looked good and is progressing nicely. Say what you want about Sean Payton, but he’s trusting Nix and it’s paying off thus far. You should trust Nix, too
To see how far these players have risen and fallen in our rankings, head over to the Fantasy Football Universe Rankings Home Page, you can also check out all our daily video content on The FFU YouTube Channel.
