Dynasty Buy-Low & Sell-High (Week 1)

Welcome to Dynasty Buy-Low & Sell-High (Week 1). This is where we come to discuss some of the players who have gained and lost the most value in dynasty leagues over the past week. If you want to see our full Fantasy Football Universe rankings, check out our FFU Rankings Page. Here are the players we are looking to buy low or sell high heading into Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season. Some are veterans approaching the age cliff, while others are players that we think are about to break out and skyrocket in value.

Dynasty Buy-Low Targets

Rashee Rice, Chiefs (WR24, 52nd overall)

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The 2023 season saw Rashee Rice come alive in the second half of the season, emerging as the team’s number one target with Travis Kelce beginning to show signs of age. Rice’s offseason dynasty value was set to skyrocket as he was the most likely receiver to make a massive leap in year two. That value saw a limited increase as Rice got himself into some off-season legal troubles after a car accident at a high rate of speed.

This legal uncertainty has helped to suppress his dynasty value which somehow still sees him outside the top 2o receivers and top 50 players overall. All that is about to come crashing down, when fantasy managers start to accept the reality that Rice likely won’t face a suspension this season and is going to be in the Chief’s starting lineup in Week 1.

When you factor in that not only is kelce starting to falter slightly but Xavier Worthy is a raw rookie and Marquise Brown is injured already and you have a recipe for a Rice blowup season incoming. Rice was also targeted by Patrick Mahomes on 25% of his throws this preseason and has clearly cemented himself as the receiver to own in Kansas City.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (WR25, 53rd overall)

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Smith-Njigba didn’t exactly tear up the league in his rookie season, finishing as WR48. He spent the majority of that season buried on the depth chart behind both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on a struggling Seattle offense that saw Geno Smith turn back into a pumpkin. Assuming Smith and the Seahawks offense can be half-competent in 2024, there is a bounce-back opportunity across the board.

The time is now for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He should easily pass aging Tyler Lockett on the wide receiver depth chart and could easily challenge Metlcalf for the team lead in targets. Second-year receivers with a change in situation are often a great bet to explode in their sophomore season and Smith-Njigba is in prime position to be the next name added to that list. Metcalf has always been the big-bodied threat with Lockett being the deep threat, with Smith-Njigba working as the slot receiver in the middle of the field he could be in store for a monster breakout season.

At WR25, JSN is being priced at his floor with the potential of a WR1 season in the range of outcomes.

Early 2025 First-Round Picks (28th overall)

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Do you know that team in your dynasty league that wins three games every season and is eliminated from the playoffs by Week 8? Well, as of now, even that team thinks they are a contender. That’s the beauty of dynasty fantasy football. Every year the slate is wiped clean and even the worst teams have a glimmer of hope.

So now is the perfect time to find that bad team who needs that “one piece to get me over the top”. Week 1 is the time of year when future draft picks are at their lowest. Right now, you can acquire them at almost unbelievable prices. Take this opportunity to ship out the Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones’ of the world in exchange for first-rounder picks in next year’s stacked class.

I know it sounds ridiculous but you would be amazed what you could trade away for a first-round pick. If you need any further convincing just know that I once traded away Kenny Golladay for a first and second-round pick. He was never fantasy-relevant after I made that trade and one of the picks turned into Bijan Robinson, and that was in an “expert” league.

Dynasty Sell-High Options

Kyren Williams, Rams (RB8, 35th overall)

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This can be said of most players who reach high-end value in fantasy football, but the value of Kyren Williams is likely never going to be higher. Williams was a Day 3 pick by the Rams, which is never a good sign for long-term value as we saw with Dameon Pierce and James Robinson, and the team adding a second-round pick is yet another reason to be fearful.

The return of healthy Cooper Kupp is also a problem for a running back who was the beneficiary of one of the heaviest workloads in the NFL last year.

I’m not saying that Williams is going to be a bust, but at an RB8 price tag, you either have to believe he is the next Austin Ekeler or he is going to lose value. Even a solid RB2 season would see his fantasy value cut in half. He doesn’t have to have a terrible season to be a sell-high, he simply cannot meet this value. There is nowhere to go but down for most running backs that find their way into the top 10, his situation ensures he will not hold that value long.

Tank Dell, Texans (WR20, 40th overall)

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Dell was off to an explosive rookie season before a broken leg ended his year. He, much like Rice was poised to be a real riser in the offseason dynasty rankings. Much like Rice, his situation changed for the worse during the offseason putting an end to that upward momentum.

Dell and Collins were a formidable one-two punch for rookie CJ Stroud in 2023, but the Texans added perennial Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs to the roster which is sure to make this receiver corps an unstable one from week to week. While all three of these receivers still possess a high level of upside, they are also going to have a high weekly variance that is going to see them swing between boom and bust in most weeks.

As if the addition of a stud receiver didn’t make this a scary situation, adding running back Joe Mixon certainly did. Mixon has functioned as a dual-threat back for much of his career and his presence in the Houston offense is only going to make the squeeze for targets even tighter. At cost, I don’t want to invest in Dell or Collins as they are both likely to be negatively impacted by the new arrivals. The only reason Diggs can even be considered is because he comes at a huge discount due to his age.

Zay Flowers, Ravens (WR22, 50th overall)

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Flowers was a consistent producer in 2023 for the Ravens and is the third sophomore receiver on this list. While his situation didn’t get noticeably worse like that of Dell, it did go back to the status quo in Baltimore which means a healthy Mark Andrews. The Ravens were so desperate for pass-catchers that they gave Odell Beckham Jr one last season of fantasy relevance. Flowers simply made the best of his opportunity. The discouraging part was that even in this optimal situation, he only managed to finish as WR30.

Now, in 2024, we see a healthy Mark Andrews returning to the Ravens lineup, where he will easily be the team leader in targets. While this receiving corps is far from deep, Rashod Bateman looks to be on the radar and the addition of rookie Devontez Walker could make things interesting.

I don’t expect Bateman or Walker to carve out a large enough role to hurt Flowers, but I also don’t expect Flowers to meet his ADP cost. In the best of situations Flowers finished as WR30, so I’m not going to pay WR22 prices in far less ideal circumstances in hopes of him taking a step forward.

The value in fantasy football has always been in targeting these second and third-year players who are being undervalued and who can dramatically improve their production, but overpaying for those potential breakouts kills all the value you gain if they hit.

To see how far these players have risen and fallen in our rankings, head over to the Fantasy Football Universe Rankings Home Page, you can also check out all our daily video content on The FFU YouTube Channel.