Welcome to Must Avoid Players, the latest article in The FFU 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit. Here we will use Fantasy Pros 1/2 PPR 1QB ADP to pick out some great targets who are not only late-round targets but also available on waiver wires after fantasy drafts. To see how these players rank in our FFU Consensus Rankings, check out our FFU Rankings Page.
Kyren Williams, RB (Rams)
Williams is the ultimate case of Player vs Situation. He was a league-winner off the waiver wire last season and if you look at that alone, he is a value in the second round of fantasy drafts. If you look at the situation though, there is plenty of reason to worry. Let’s start with his draft capital or lack thereof. Williams was a fifth-round pick and Day 3 running backs rarely have sustained success for fantasy, especially at the level he produced last season and is being drafted at this year. The lone exception to this rule has been Austin Ekeler so he may be just a diamond in the rough, but the odds say it’s a low probability.
If those odds were scary enough, the Rams went out and spent a third-round pick on Michigan running back Blake Corum which now makes Williams terrifying. Let’s get this straight. I don’t hate Williams as a player, he was excellent last season, but at his current cost, with the risk of a loss in workload when you factor in Corum and a healthy Cooper Kupp, it’s far more likely that he massively underachieves this ADP. The best-case scenario here is that he breaks even and produces at a second-round ADP. There is simply no scenario in which he beats this ADP. So you have to draft Williams knowing that, at best, he is going to be in a break-even situation.
Rome Odunze, WR (Bears)
Odunze is the second player on this list where it’s a case of hating the situation and not the player. Rome Odunze may have been the best receiver in this draft class, at worst he was top 3. Odunze could be a stud shortly but his rookie season presents a situation that makes him too unlikely to recoup his draft cost. He is going in the sixth round which is part of what makes him enticing to managers, but even at that cost, he’s a risky pick.
The Bears will be starting a rookie quarterback, and as talented as Caleb Williams is, that’s rarely a great scenario for fantasy. The lone exception there has been CJ Stroud, but it’s rare. Not only is a rookie quarterback scary but he is part of a stacked wide receiver room that boasts the likes of breakout star DJ Moore and future Hall of Famer, Keenan Allen. Add in talented running back D’Andre Swift and productive tight end Cole Kmet and there are too many mouths to feed. There may be a single productive player in this offense, but the odds of the rookie being the one who wins the battle for the WR1 spot are slim at best.
Nick Chubb, RB (Browns)
Again, Nick Chubb is not necessarily the issue, but rather his health status. Chubb has been a stud and excellent rusher since he broke into the NFL, but all that came crashing down last season when his year was cut short by a season-ending knee injury. Many managers are expecting Chubb to be healthy and ready to go for Week 1 and I do not expect that to be the case. The injury he suffered last season is a difficult one to return from even for the youngest of running backs, Chubb will be 29 years old by the end of this season.
A knee injury of this magnitude typically sees a player returning by the mid-point of the season, with limited effectiveness and burst. In most cases, the injured player doesn’t return to full speed until the second year removed from injury. For Chubb to be expected not only to be ready for this season but to be back to his previous form is Ludacris. Even if Chubb can play at some point this season, he will be nowhere near the same player and the Browns would be wise to give Jerome Ford a heavier workload to protect whatever is left in the tank of Nick Chubb. Chubb is going in the eighth round and with Ford going with or later than him in fantasy drafts, there isn’t a scenario in which I’m drafting Chubb over Ford.
Christian Watson, WR (Packers)
Watson has been a polarizing player over his brief NFL career. Mostly because when he plays he has been a fantasy stud. The problem is, he missing far too much time. Every season, two things are guaranteed with Watson. He will put up a monster four-game stretch in which he will score in every game, and he will put up a four-game stretch where he won’t play due to a soft tissue injury to his legs.
The Packers may not sport a receiving corps full of big-name stars, but they have a considerable amount of depth. Romeo Doubs has shown to be reliable, Jayden Reed was excellent as a rookie and gives every indication of being a bonafide fantasy asset, while Dontayvion Wicks also showed the ability to step into the lineup and produce. In the end, I’m not committing a ninth-round pick to drafting Watson, when I could just as easily draft another Packers receiver and have them in my lineup every week. The talent is there for Watson, but he is going to need to battle to shake his injury-plagued tag.
TJ Hockenson, TE (Vikings)
Hockenson is going in the eighth round of fantasy drafts and that’s way too high. His big name and previous production are likely the reasons the general public continues to overdraft him, but even with his track record of production, he projects to miss half of the season due to injury. Don’t get me wrong, I was planning on drafting Hockenson in the last rounds of my fantasy drafts and stashing him on my IR for a late-season run, but that hasn’t been the case. Instead of getting him with a late throwaway pick, managers are drafting him in the mid-rounds when there are still solid assets left on the board.
If his injury wasn’t bad enough, rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy is also going to miss the season with an injury, leaving journeyman and first-round bust Sam Darnold as the Vikings quarterback for 2024. This entire situation is scary, and to commit an eighth-round pick to a player who will miss half of the season and play the other half with Sam Darnold as his quarterback is an insane pick. I’m out on Hockenson anywhere near this price point. Talk to me when he is going in the 14th round.
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