An NFL survivor pool is a wonderful thing. Much like sports betting, it gives casual fans something to cheer for when they don’t have the time for fantasy sports. As simple as it sounds to pick one winner each week, there is a lot more that you must consider. I will discuss point spreads, ownership rates, injuries, and weather each week. This will help you decide which team you should choose for your pool. I’ll offer a multi-faceted approach that will give you several options for each week. These options are based on your level of risk tolerance. This is The FFU NFL Survivor Pool Guide (Week 4) Edition.
As a side note: The Fantasy Football Universe also runs an NFL Survivor Pool as a control group. You can find the group to follow along. I will refer to the pool in this series and provide updates to show how we play each week. After all, you can’t trust our advice if we don’t follow it ourselves. Also, check out The FFU Survivor Pool Crash Course tutorial.
Week 4 Pick Distribution
The Safe Route
San Francisco 49ers, 29.23% ownership (-10.0) vs. New England Patriots, 0.02% ownership: It finally happened in Week 3! The biggest favorite of a slate of games won after two straight losses. This week, the San Francisco 49ers look to rebound from a tough loss to their division rival Los Angeles Rams. The Patriots started the season off riding high, but have slowly looked the way we all expected. They still boast a solid defense, but with almost no offense, it’s going to be nearly impossible for them to keep pace with the 49ers, even if they are missing offensive weapons.
Risk= 1
The Sneaky Value Pick
Dallas Cowboys, 16.51% ownership (-5.5) vs. New York Giants, 0.02% ownership: A tough divisional matchup sees the Cowboys looking to bounce back from a tough loss while the Giants are riding high. Despite the Cowboy’s recent struggles, they should easily handle the New York Giants who were productive on offense last week with a monster performance by rookie Malik Nabers. Regardless of how good Nabers is, the Giants are still a bad football team and are no match for the Dallas Cowboys. You have to deal with the ever-present risk of Dallas choking in a divisional matchup as they often do, but on a squad vs squad basis, the Cowboys are the far superior team.
Risk= 7
The Upset Special
Cleveland Browns, 0.10% ownership (+1.0) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 0.38% ownership: The Browns have looked awful this season against some mediocre teams, but to have the Raiders favored in this matchup is a stretch. The Raiders were beaten soundly by the Carolina Panthers who many believed were the worst team in the NFL. Now that distinction could belong to the Raiders and yet they are still picked to win this one. The Browns may be a mess on offense, but so are the Raiders. Cleveland however, holds a significant edge on defense and that’s why I’m rolling with the Browns in what figures to be an ugly, low-scoring game.
Risk = 5
The Must Avoid
Atlanta Falcons, 0.16% ownership (-1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints, 0.76% ownership: This matchup occurs twice a year, and regardless of how good or bad either team is it’s about as unpredictable as it gets. The Saints have looked like the best team in the NFL before flopping dramatically in Week 3, while the Falcons started slow but appear to be rounding into form. The Saints could win by double-digits, or the Falcons could win by double-digits, or this game could be an overtime thriller. This one is too close to call and should be avoided.
Risk = 9
If you enjoyed NFL Survivor Pool Guide: Week 4, check out how last week’s picks fared on The Fantasy Football Universe Survivor Pool Home Page.
