Welcome to Overreaction Monday (Week 1). Here we take a look at some of the biggest overreactions from the NFL season so far to determine if we are buying or selling them as an ongoing narrative. The Week 1 version of this column will aim to evaluate the goings on from the now-completed NFL preseason.
Drop All Vikings Players in Your Rankings
We will start with a unique case. I’m not dropping the Viking’s offensive weapons in my rankings, but that’s because I dropped them to begin the offseason. Rookie first-round pick JJ McCarthy is going to miss the entire 2024 season due to injury and that has caused a growing number of fantasy managers to drop Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson in their ranking. The problem with doing this is, McCarthy’s injury doesn’t change anything.
Sam Darnold now looks to be the starter for the Vikings this season and while that may be the reason to drop all the Viking’s offensive players, you should have already dropped them in your rankings. The drop for Jefferson and Addison should have come when the Vikings transitioned from Kirk Cousins to JJ McCarthy, not from McCarthy to Darnold. That was the drop-off, not now. For managers to expect a rookie quarterback to have been notably better than Darnold is a bad process.
Hockenson also should have been dropped previously as he is going to miss half of the season due to injury, regardless of who the quarterback is. As I said above, I’m not dropping the Viking’s weapons now, because I accounted for the quarterback situation months ago.
Verdict: Sell (Because you should have already done this when Cousins left)
Avoid The Steelers Offense
I will admit it, the Steelers have looked awful for this reason, but it’s the preseason with half their starters playing together. What has caused most fantasy managers to overreact is their offensive configuration as they appeared to be rotating three tight ends for much of their Preseason Week 3 matchup.
That’s certainly not ideal for the likes of Pat Freirmuth, as it likely showcases just how little faith the coaching staff has in the receiving corps, but it could be a silver lining in the cloud. This lack of faith in their receiving options outside of George Pickens and Freiermtuh means they will be force-feeding the ball to Freiermuth and Pickens and they were likely the only pass-catchers anyone wanted on Pittsburgh anyway.
Add in a likely bump in targets for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to compensate for the lack of a WR2 and it gives a solid floor to the only two running backs anyone was drafting on the Steelers. Sure, the potentially lingering injury to Warren is troublesome, but if he can stay healthy, this Pittsburgh offense is incredibly consolidated and is a value for fantasy.
Even Russell Wilson himself, who looked terrible this preseason is a low-cost option with a relatively safe floor. None of the Steelers are likely to be league-winners, but they are all flex-worthy pieces at a deep discount. Just temper your expectations for them, they are not the Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell Steelers we loved.
Verdict: Sell
Jerome Ford is a Top-20 Back
As we’ve been saying all along, Nick Chubb is not going to lead this backfield in 2024, and perhaps not ever again! Jerome Ford is going to be the lead back to start the season as Chubb will start the first month on the PUP list. It’s entirely possible Chubb will not be healthy or up to game speed for much of the season, leaving Ford as the biggest value in fantasy football.
Ford was a Top-15 running back last season when Chubb was out and at a current ADP of RB38, he is free money. It’s ridiculous to think that Chubb was being drafted above Ford all off-season even though we all anticipated this would be the situation. Reality has finally set in and what we all knew was going to happen came true. Why the fantasy community needs to do things the hard way is a mystery. This is an easy RB2 at dollar store pricing. If you didn’t buy low on Ford, it’s too late now. His stock is about to go through the roof.
Verdict: Buy
Brandon Aiyuk Will Holdout into the Season
NFL players aren’t holding out, so stop pushing that narrative. Not since Le’Veon Bell have we seen a star in their prime holdout, and we all saw how that played out, Bell lost millions of dollars and was never fantasy-relevant again.
There is just no benefit to sitting out games under the current CBA. The player can only sit out up to six games before they are forced to play or that year doesn’t count and even if they choose to sit out those six games, it’s at a massive financial loss that only hurts themself.
No player is going to hold out. There simply is nothing good that happens to them if they do. Aiyuk will posture and threaten to hold out, but come Week 1 you can bet he will be on the field. My only concern in his situation is that he may get off to a slow start due to missing training camp and preseason events while fighting for a new deal.
EDIT: Brandon Aiyuk signed a 4-year/$120 contract extension before this article was published.
Verdict: Sell
Tyron Tracy Jr Makes Waves
Tracy was drafted this offseason in the fifth round by the Giants. Despite having little draft capital and battling an ankle injury during the preseason, he has still managed to secure the RB2 role without much question.
As we sit, Devin Singletary is listed on the New York depth chart as the RB1, but fantasy managers shouldn’t expect that to last for long. Tracy is faster and more explosive and is a better pass-catcher and blocker. He is the all-around player that Singletary is not. We’ve seen in the past that Singletary is nothing more than a boring plodder and the day will come very soon when the Giants turn the reign over to Tyrone Tracy Jr altogether.
My only concern with Tracy isn’t that he currently sits behind Singletary on the depth chart, it’s that the Giant’s offense may be so bad that he will struggle to score touchdowns. Regardless, he is free at his current cost and has the potential to be this year’s Kyren Williams.
Verdict: Buy
JK Dobbins Is The RB1 for the Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers are the definition of an ambiguous backfield. They seemingly have a handful of players with no solid options. This lack of a proven back is why most analysts were foaming at the mouth at the prospects of an early-round running back landing there. Sadly, that didn’t happen and we are left with a collection of misfits to sift through.
This backfield currently consists of JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Jaret Patterson, Elijah Dotson, and rookie Kimani Vidal. While that may not be an imposing backfield to overcome, the long history of injuries is simply too much for anyone to trust in Dobbins.
Edwards is going to be the first back on the field in most situations with Vidal acting as the RB2 on the team, leaving Dobbins as the odd man out on the depth chart. Dobbins is going to need an injury to find his way to the top of the Chargers depth chart and given the fact that Dobbins is traditionally the one who gets injured, I’m not factoring him into the fantasy equation here.
This is a shame considering how much potential Dobbins had coming out of college, but his injuries started in college and continued through his career and have derailed any chance he has of being a star in the NFL. Instead, you should be targeting the duo of Edwards and Vidal at a discount.
Verdict: Sell
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