Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 11, where we dissect the biggest narratives from the NFL week and season. Week 10 gave us plenty to overreact to… so let’s get into it.
Joe Burrow Is a League Winning QB
No. But he’s definitely a high-end, stabilising force in your lineup each week.
Burrow has 24 TDs this season, which is tied for the league league. He’s delivering the ball accurately and on time amidst a ton of pressure as he works behind a mediocre offensive line. He’s doing everything within his power and not turning the ball over, just as Austin Abbott cites here:
https://twitter.com/AustinAbbottFF/status/1855971150783746467
Unfortunately, it hasn’t been enough to win games.
But, fortunately for us, we play fantasy football, and Burrow is a mid-range QB1 weekly with upside for more if he throws more tuddies. And, he should get Tee Higgins back at some point, further elevating his ceiling.
We like that the defense isn’t good. We like that the run game is just okay. We like that Burrow chucks it all around the yard. But the schedule is not as friendly down the stretch, though it’s still pretty good.
Bottom Line: His lack of rushing upside sadly caps his ceiling, so he’s not a league winner. Still, you’re overjoyed he’s your QB1
MVS Is Worth Your Attention – and Your FAAB
Hard disagree here.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a phenomenal game. He finished as the half-ppr WR2 on the week ahead of Monday night, catching all three of his targets for 109 yards and two scores. He also led the Saints in routes run, though he only ran 18 of those in this one. It was just, well, a very MVS kind of game:
https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1855689800163926224
Ian is joking around here, but it’s funny because it’s true. MVS does this type of thing once a season. Last year it was a 3 for 81 and 1 performance against the Chargers, where he finished as the WR10. He didn’t sniff higher than WR55 in any other game. In 2022, he went 6 for 116 and 1 in the Conference Championship against Cincy that sent the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. Before that, he had 3 games on the season where he was barely a WR2.
Point is, this is not a player to spend a tremendous amount of FAAB on, in my opinion. I’m going after Alec Pierce or Ray-Ray McCloud ahead of MVS, but really I’m just not too interested in any of them.
Bottom Line: Derek Carr can sling the deep ball, but MVS is far too boom or bust with a tough schedule over the next month. I’ll pass
The RB1 We All Should Covet Is… Chuba Hubbard?
Yes. Yes it is.
Chuba is by far the cheapest shot you have at grabbing an RB1 for the rest of the season. And possibly beyond.
We know Hubbard has a 4 year contract in place, despite Carolina spending significant draft capital on stud Texas RB Jonathon Brooks. We know the Panthers have a ton of other needs. We know they haven’t yet found their offensive identity. And still, week after week, Chuba is proving why he deserves everything he’s getting:
While I expect Brooks to eat in to Hubbard’s share, he’s proving it might not be as large a slice of the pie as we all assumed at the start of the season. For those fantasy managers holding Brooks and praying for a second-half breakout, Chuba sends his apologies.
He’s not going away any time soon. The team and staff love him. He’s producing. And, right now, he’s the RB6 overall in half-ppr leagues. And, with the bye week, he’ll be back and close to 100% with Brooks taking some, but not a ton, of work away.
Bottom Line: Chuba looks poised to continue his RB1 ways after the bye, even while dealing with an injury and Brooks. You’re still firing him up weekly and expecting near-elite production
Without Dak, CeeDee Lamb is Unplayable
Sadly, I’m going with true here. At least for the next few weeks.
Unplayable might be a stretch, but he’s definitely seeing my bench against Houston and Washington, two defenses who can rush the passer. I’ll probably fire him up against the Giants and Cincy in plus matchups, but you also run a risk there of the QBs not being able to get much going against the rush. It’s a horrible situation for a player who is still as elite as they come:
https://twitter.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1855991949645230396
The Cowboys completed 17 passes, and 6 of those went to CeeDee. He accounted for 31.8% of their total passing yards. And he still finished with a 6 for 21 and 0 line. Lamb is down bad, as are the Cowboys and their fans, without Dak Prescott.
Bottom Line: Better days will have to come for Lamb, but I’m only confident playing him in roughly 4 of his 7 remaining games. Yikes!
Cade Otton Is Cooked
Not so fast…
It was one game, but Otton turned into a pumpkin on Sunday against the 49ers fearsome unit of LBs and safeties. Despite earning 8 targets, 5 for 35 and no touchdowns is not what we’ve come to expect from the third-year tight end absent Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. At least the usage is still there:
https://twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/1855970362153943383
But will it continue to be there once Mike Evans comes back? That is the real question.
The answer is probably.
Evans should see an elite target share upon his return to the lineup, but Otton should retain his share as well. Playing the big slot role in this Tampa O makes him relevant every week. And, the fact that Baker had such a bad day by his standards in this one, makes it actually impressive that Otton wasn’t completely shut down.
Oh, and he’s got one of the best schedules of any TE rest of season.
Bottom Line: The schedule lines up, and so do the targets. Don’t worry about Otton at all
To see how far these players have risen and fallen in our rankings, head over to the Fantasy Football Universe Rankings Home Page, you can also check out all our daily video content on The FFU YouTube Channel.
