Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 13, where we dissect the biggest narratives from the NFL week and season. Week 12 is nearly complete… but we won’t let that stop us from overreacting now. Join in!
Bucky Irving Is an RB1 the Rest of the Way
1000% correct. Get used to it.
I’m not saying Bucky Irving is a supremely talented RB. I’m not saying he’s in the best possible situation. I’m not even saying he’s a top-12 NFL RB. But none of that matters when Irving is seeing the best possible schedule setup for his given role and the Bucs are riding him and he’s producing like this:
https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1861036616598311317
Irving has been a revelation recently for Tampa Bay, especially given that this team is looking for wins to remain relevant in the NFC playoff picture. Now 5-6 and getting healthier, the Bucs stand a chance to make the playoffs and make a run similar to what they accomplished last year.
But the biggest reason I’m this hight on Irving isn’t because of the player or even the offense. It’s the phenomenal upcoming schedule, that began against the Giants this past weekend.
The Tampa Bay Bucks face off against the Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys and Panthers to close out the fantasy season. That’s the best remaining schedule for RBs by Fantasy Pros Strength of Schedule metric and it’s likely the Bucs see a majority of those games with neutral or positive scripts throughout. That means it’s Bucky time, nearly every week.
But what’s more encouraging is Irving’s usage in the passing game. Another 6 targets yesterday puts him in elite company given his role, even alongside fellow pass-catching back Rachaad White.
Bottom Line: Irving ate on Sunday, and should continue to do so against the softest schedule imaginable. The buy-low window has shut, but hopefully you can enjoy his upcoming production on your roster. He’s a weekly must-start
Caleb Williams Is Developing into a Fantasy Starter
No lies detected.
Since jettisoning Shane Waldron, the Bears have lost two incredibly close games while also looking more than functional on offense. Williams has also been balling out, especially in regarding his professional-level play of late:
https://twitter.com/Chicago_NFL/status/1860793720620056756
Not turning the ball over once in 5 straight is a wild stat for a rookie. This is especially true when you consider his exceptional rookie QB competition in Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix have turned it over 2 and 3 times, respectively, over the same span.
But it’s not just taking care of the football that has me interested in Caleb. It’s also his efficient and excellent tight-window passing, along with an improved scheme and, most notably, the fact that he’s running more often. If Williams can consistently keep up this level of production on the ground, his weekly floor will rise while his ceiling remains intact.
That’s the type of fantasy QB I want on my roster, even in 1 QB leagues. Even in a rookie year that has been largely disappointing… perhaps only until just now.
Bottom Line: Williams has proven of late that he can make things happen through the air and on the ground. And even with a somewhat difficult schedule ahead, I still like his prospects ROS
The KC TE to Own is… Noah Gray?!
No chance. Sorry Kelce haters…
I do not claim to know what the hell the Chiefs are doing, relying on a last-second field goal to put away the worst team in football. And their M.O. this season is to win and win close. But, at 10-1 they still win… a lot. So they clearly don’t care how.
But we care how in the fantasy streets. ‘How?’ and ‘How much?’ is literally our entire game. And, at least for the past two weeks, the Chiefs ‘how’ has been Noah Gray:
https://twitter.com/Schultz_Report/status/1860765167878828204
Gray’s ‘how much’ has been the talk of fantasy circles and it has us wondering if Kelce is cooked or if Gray will continue to be this involved. But with DeAndre Hopkins now fully integrated into the offense and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Isiah Pacheco back from injury, the too-many-mouths theory is in full effect in KC.
Could Gray keep up this level of production? Sure. Especially if opposing defenses continue to refuse to cover him. But as of right now, I’m betting against a break. If for nothing else than for 4 TDs on 9 total targets over the past two weeks. But also because Kelce has earned 12 targets over the same span.
Bottom Line: Gray is a good, replacement-level player at the TE position, but he’s not replacing a healthy Kelce any time soon. The music is about to stop for Noah’s recent production arc
Miami Will Keep Feeding Jaylen Waddle
Again, I’ll bet against this one.
I wrote last week that Miami would keep feeding TE Jonnu Smith. And given his 9 for 87 and 1 line from last week on 11 targets, that has held true. Waddle, however, saw his most targets, receptions and yards on the season in Week 12. And, it came against one of the league’s worst teams.
And, of course, good players post good underlying metrics. Like these:
https://twitter.com/jagibbs_23/status/1860807801385202140
We know Waddle is an excellent wide receiver who has largely lived up to his 6th overall selection a few years ago, at least from a talent perspective. And, aside from this season, he’s been fairly productive as well, if not a little boom-bust.
But whereas teammates De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith provide weekly, bankable production, the wide receivers, somehow, do not. These are the days of our fantasy lives in 2024.
Tyreek Hill is almost an afterthought in this offense, despite solid target numbers all year long. But the big plays have gone to others in most cases. Now the schedule for Waddle and company is pretty favorable, so you can fire up all your Dolphins going forward. But I do expect some bust week’s for Waddle to follow this boom.
Bottom Line: Waddle should continue his boom-bust ways, so I’m not willing to bet on him weekly. He’s the clear 4th fiddle in this offense, which is not something I’ll invest in against superior defenses
Adam Thielen is WR1 in Carolina Yet Again
Quite obviously, this is a big yes.
While he was just the 4th most targeted Panther in Week 12, Thielen clearly made an impact on this offense. He looked fresh out there, made some nice receptions, and provided the much-needed leadership they’ve been lacking on offense from a veteran presence. And that showed off the field, too:
https://twitter.com/ashstro/status/1860804590783881328
Thielen is the exact guy this team needs not he field right now. Chuba Hubbard can’t do it all, and with Miles Sanders down for the count, it’s only Hubbard and Thielen with a veteran presence and a significant role among the skill positions in Carolina.
It makes sense that the Panthers want to get their youngsters on the field as much as possible in a lost season. But it’s also impressive that they can get them close to victory against one of the league’s best squads, letting them taste success, no matter how small. Thielen, now 34 years old, isn’t long for the league, but he’s exactly what this team needs. And he’s the fantasy WR1 until further notice, even if David Moore outproduced him in this one.
Bottom Line: Thielen makes for a weekly flex consideration as a good wideout on a bad team. And while the Panthers may continue to choose to feature other younger players, I still think Thielen’s veteran savvy wins out over the next week and beyond. Buy in
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