Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 2, where we look at some of the biggest narratives from the NFL season thus far. It’s been a wild week of football, so let’s dive in!
Isaiah Likely is THE TE1 in Baltimore
No chance. But Likely is THE TE1 of Week 1 unless George Kittle or Tyler Conklin go off tonight. Both are un-Likely but so was Likely’s performance. Isaiah finished Thursday night’s matchup with a 9 target, 111 yard effort and added in a touchdown for good measure. He even almost had a second TD, but his toe betrayed him in the end.
But here’s the upside case for Likely, and why you SHOULD spend a ton on him on the waiver wire:
Ravens Week 1 TE Usage
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 6, 2024
– Mark Andrews: 71% snaps, 28 routes, 5.2 air yds per target, 30% snaps from tight, 60% from slow
– Isaiah Likely: 70% snaps, 24 routes, 9.4 air yds per target, 42% tight, 52% slot
As Florio notes, Likely is seeing a ton of work from the slot and mirroring Mark Andrews‘ usage. Now Andrews is still recovering from a car accident a few weeks ago, so it’s more than possible he works in more. Also, the Ravens aren’t usually playing from behind, but that’s exactly how it shook out against the Chiefs this week. Still, the usage is nice and could continue, especially given Rashod Bateman was, once again, unimpressive.
Bottom Line: Buy Likely, but buy Mark Andrews too, the Ravens true TE1
Tight End Is as Difficult to Navigate as Ever
Not exactly. Kyle Pitts squeezed his way into the top 7 TEs for Week 1, admits all the other surprise heroes at the position this week. As it stands before Monday night, Likely, Foster Moreau, Pitts, Juwan Johnson, Brock Bowers, Chig Okonkwo and Colby Parkinson round out the top 7. TE has always been a volatile fantasy position, but we thought we had a read on it this season.
Turns out, this sort of thing is routine:
Here were the top 5 tight ends in fantasy football last year after one week. Don't overreact to one game. pic.twitter.com/3o58M9XPV6
— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) September 8, 2024
What Coop is preaching here is to pump the breaks. Likely and Bowers look like solid pickups. Maybe you can grab Parkinson for a month or two in a pinch. But don’t go crazy here. Week 1 is crazy enough for all of us most years anyway.
And don’t look to bench or jettison your studs like Trey McBride (TE10), Travis Kelce (TE13), or Dalton Kincaid (TE36). If you have injuries at the position, that’s a different story, but these guys will produce when healthy.
Bottom Line: Stay the course with your stud TEs. They will come around
JK Dobbins is THE RB to Own in Los Angeles
1000%, yes. JK Dobbins had an exceptional game for the Chargers in Week 1. Dobbins went for 135 yards on the ground and another 4 through the air and scored. More importantly, he looked explosive, something he has lacked in recent, injury-riddled seasons. This week’s current RB3 helped lead his team to a decisive victory, and he did it against a pretty stout Raiders front.
What’s scary good here is the efficiency, the run-first offense, and the fact that Dobbins still has more work to do:
#Chargers RB JK Dobbins couldn’t wipe the smile from his face in his postgame presser after today’s standout performance, even though he says he should have scored on both of his two longest runs.
— Dan W. (@DanWSports) September 9, 2024
“I gotta get in shape. I thought I was in shape. I was not.” 😅 pic.twitter.com/ruWcWVg0uq
Dobbins has a chance to build on his 58% snap share in Week 1 and he won’t face defenses like the Raiders every week. In fact, he’s got the Panthers in Week 2.
With Gus Edwards looking more like the plodder we’ve come to see in the past few years and Kimani Vidal inactive, Dobbins is the clear-cut RB1 in LA and he’s also a priority waiver add this week.
Bottom Line: JK Dobbins is back. Deal with it… and deal for him if you can!
Mobile QBs Will Continue to Eat All Season
Absolutely. We preach it all the time in fantasy, but mobile QBs just simply break the format. Consider that Baker Mayfield had an exceptional 289 yard, 4 TD day with an 80% completion percentage and no interceptions… and Josh Allen still was the QB1 this week. Also, Jayden Daniels, Anthony Richardson and Lamar Jackson rounded out the top 5, as Mayfield barely edged them out by a couple of points at most.
Mobile QBs have high ceilings but the also have high floors, so the hyper mobile QBs mentioned above should end up in the top 5 more often than not this season. It’s why Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Justin Fields should bounce back after a down Week 1.
And there’s also this:
Depth of target distributions for QBs in Week 1, ordered by average.
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) September 9, 2024
The bump in the 50-plus range for Anthony Richardson proved tremendously fruitful pic.twitter.com/NDgKfxOcEy
This should normalise over time, but it also speaks to scheme and personnel. Richardson and Allen will continue to be elite if this keeps up. Caleb Williams, Hurts and Murray have room to grow after a down first week.
Point here is don’t sleep on the mobile guys, even still. Picking up Fields and Bo Nix is the play if you have a need at the position.
Bottom Line: Mobile QBs are still king in fantasy. Buy in where possible
Jameson Williams is the Real Deal
Sadly for no one at all, yes. Yes he is.
It’s most likely sad of Amon-Ra St. Brown owners. And then there’s the Sam LaPorta investors. And how could we forget Jahmyr Gibbs truthers. But Jameson Williams balled out last night, en route to a half par WR4 finish with a final line of 5 receptions for 121 yards and 1 TD on 9 targets. The Lions were also manufacturing plays for him, with an additional end around that netted 13 yards.
Williams is dynamic and it seems like he’s finally injury free and gets what it takes to excel in the NFL. And, like we’ve heard all offseason, the Lions are giving him every opportunity:
Jameson Williams played 85% of the snaps and posted a 5-121-1 receiving line on nine targets.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 9, 2024
Breakout game.
Jamo is most certainly the real deal, but he’s also not a lock for this type of weekly usage just yet. There are so many dynamic weapons in this Lions offense and the defense continues to improve. Therefore, Williams is for sure a priority add, but he will continue to be a weekly boom/bust option.
Still, he has Brandon Aiyuk upside in a highly-efficient offense that could take yet another step forward this season.
Bottom Line: Buy in, but expect boom/bust production
To see how far these players have risen and fallen in our rankings, head over to the Fantasy Football Universe Rankings Home Page, you can also check out all our daily video content on The FFU YouTube Channel.
