Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 6, where we look at some of the biggest narratives from the NFL season thus far. Week 5 was another wild and unpredictable week of action with a ton to overreact to… so let’s get to it.
The RB1 in Jacksonville is Now Tank Bigsby
Correct.
In Week 5, Bigsby doubled up running mate Travis Etienne, toting the rock 13 times to Etienne’s 6. Etienne was heavily involved in the passing game with 7 targets, but it only translated into 9 half ppr points as compared to Bigsby’s 25.4. It’s a disaster for Etienne managers, while Bigsby truthers, if there were any, were finally rewarded.
But the real question is whether or not this is sustainable. What do the metrics look like? Well… they’re good. They’re very good:
The goal line work is there for Bigsby. The snap rate is solid. The efficiency is still impressive on increased volume. Bigsby seems to be the guy right now and, barring injury, he should be the guy in the Jags backfield going forward.
Bottom Line: If I have a deep RB room, I’m selling Bigsby high. If no one is buying just yet, I’ll ride him as a weekly, high-end RB2
Caleb Williams is a QB1 Rest of Season
Sadly, not yet.
Caleb looked awesome yesterday. He was highly efficient, completing 69% of his passes, making two straight weeks he’s hovered around a 70% completion percentage. Williams turned in his second-best rushing output of the season, adding a floor to his potential weekly ceiling. He’s currently the QB6 on the week with just Mahomes and Carr left to play in tough defensive matchups. But there’s a but…
But Williams played at home against one of the league’s worst defenses in the Carolina Panthers. Last week, it was the Rams. Both opponents rank 6th and 8th worst, respectively, at giving up points to the QB position. And you can clearly see that reflected in the stat below:
Though his upward trajectory speaks to Williams’ development, it also speaks to his lack of competition in recent weeks. But if we look ahead at Caleb’s schedule, we see the Jaguars (1st), Commanders (9th) and Cardinals (7th) over the next month of the season. Those rankings indicate where Caleb’s upcoming opponents stand when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. It’s continuing to be juicy in the short term.
So, although Williams has played well and looks the part, and although his schedule cooperates for now, he’s still not a QB1 this year. But he will be close. He’s still a rookie, but looking worthy of the 1.01 nonetheless.
Bottom Line: Caleb is progressing the way we had hoped and his schedule is friendly for now. Hold and enjoy the production, but the back half looks rough so he won’t end up as a QB1
Joe Flacco Is the Captain Now in Indy
I’m in shambles. And, yeah, he’s gotta be.
The offense is just so different with Joe Flacco than it is with Anthony Richardson. And it has to be. Anyone with eyeballs can tell that these two QBs have dramatically different skill sets with dramatically different needs from their supporting cast.
Richardson needs a solid pass blocking line with a functional run game to thrive. Check. He needs receivers who can work open in the short to intermediate areas of the field. Check. He needs a deep threat or two to stretch the field and utilize his big arm and fairly decent downfield accuracy. Check. So what’s wrong with Richardson, then, beyond the accuracy concerns? As a moderately heavy investor this offseason, I wish I knew.
Joe Flacco, on the other hand, barely needs anything. He just comes in and produces, putting mediocre QBs to shame over the past two seasons in Deshaun Watson and Richardson. But he’s also putting elite QBs to shame as well:
There is something to be said here for the elite processor at QB. The Tom Brady’s and Payton Manning’s of the NFL world. Sure, Flacco may not end up a Hall of Famer, but it’s not completely out of the question. And with the way he’s been playing at the twilight of his career, he’s proving he’s the best option for the Colts this season. He also proved it last season in Cleveland. He doesn’t have much else to prove at this point, except to prove to Head Coach Shane Steichen that he should hand Flacco the reins for the rest of this season.
Bottom Line: Joe Flacco wins, even when he loses. Richardson needs to sit and somehow learn to take care of the football and his body as Flacco continues to cook
Garrett Wilson Is Back
Absolutely… almost.
Garrett Wilson saw 22 targets in Week 5, which he converted to a 13 for 101 and 1 line. Many will point to the fact that his target share over this one-game sample is unsustainable or that his 101 yards is not enough given the volume he saw. And they’d be right:
But Wilson proved that he’s the alpha in an offense tied to a Hall of Fame QB who can still sling it when given time. The Jets offense doesn’t look great right now, but you have to consider the schedule with where they’ve been and where they’re headed.
So far, it’s been the 49ers (half ppr WR33), Titans (WR33), Patriots (WR26), Broncos (WR64) and now Vikings. Pending Monday night, Wilson will be the WR6 in Week 5. The difference between last week and the first month? Shutdown corners like L’Jarius Sneed, Christian Gonzalez and Patrick Surtain.
So will it turn around now that Wilson has broken out? Not yet. He still sees the Bills, Steelers and Patriots again over the next three weeks. You still have to wait.
But the back half of Wilson’s schedule is as juicy as it gets. Starting from Week 9, Wilson gets the Texans, Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jaguars and Rams. That’s 7 straight games of great matchups, with only the Bills in championship week to deter owners. Hold and wait it out if you can. If you can’t, sell now!
Bottom Line: Wilson will break out for good, but you have to wait another 3 weeks. If you can’t, sell him for top dollar now or hold out for a massive second half
Your Newest Top 5 TE: Tucker Kraft
Currently, this is true. Kraft is the TE3 in half ppr through the first 5 weeks after a massive day on Sunday. For the season, I’ll say no, but it’ll be very close.
Kraft has posted 77% of his fantasy production in the past two weeks with Christian Watson and now Romeo Doubs out of the lineup for the Pack. What is incredibly reassuring is that Watson should be shelved for a few more weeks, Doubs could soon be shipped out of Green Bay and Luke Musgrave has been a complete afterthought in the passing game as the presumed starter at TE this offseason.
Kraft and Love have been clicking of late, and the condensed target share has helped him display his athleticism:
You’re not mad at Kraft’s production, and he should be steady all season with the potential for a down game here and there. Still, he’s one of the guys you can rely on at the TE position right now.
But with Brock Bowers, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson and, yes, even Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts at the fantasy TE position, I’m not ready to anoint Kraft as a top 5 guy. Could I be convinced his top 6? Probably.
Bottom Line: Kraft has been awesome. Lock him in to your lineups and continue to profit most weeks
To see how far these players have risen and fallen in our rankings, head over to the Fantasy Football Universe Rankings Home Page, you can also check out all our daily video content on The FFU YouTube Channel.
