Devy Diamonds: Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
Welcome to Devy Diamonds: Drew Allar was a 5-star prospect from Medina High School in Medina, Ohio. At the time he was ranked QB1 of the graduating class of 2022 and the 3rd best player in the nation according to 247sports. In January of 2022, he enrolled at Penn State.
In his freshman year, he was not asked to do much, however, he threw for 344 yards with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions.
During his sophomore season, the starting job was his to lose. He showed little improvement in his accuracy by throwing for only 1.6% higher than his freshman season. Allar had a completion percentage of 59.9%. On film he displays the cannon he has for an arm, however, he only threw for 2,631 yards. He flashed signs of brilliance and areas of concern for his inconsistencies. The bright side is he showed some great discipline when making his throws. Allar threw 25 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions, rarely committing a turnover.
2024 Outlook: What to Expect
In 2024, Penn State fans can anticipate an exciting season from quarterback Drew Allar, who is poised to build on his previous performances. Known for his strong arm, Allar is expected to lead a dynamic offense, leveraging his improved decision-making and increased comfort in the pocket. The downfall might be the system that Penn State runs. The Nittany Lions run their offense through their running backs. Both Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have the potential to be top running backs of the 2025 class.
Drew Allar will get a new receiving weapon in former Ohio State wide receiver Julian Fleming. Fleming dealt with injuries while at Ohio State, however, he has displayed reliable hands with precise route running. If Fleming becomes a healthy reliable WR1 for Allar and we see his arm strength on full display with an accuracy increase then 2024 could be a draft stock rising year for Allar. With another year of experience under his belt, the hope is that he will show enhanced leadership skills and a deeper understanding of the playbook.
It is worth noting that Penn State did not have one receiver eclipse 675 receiving yards last season. Plus, only two receivers saw more than 4 touchdowns, both being tight ends. Of those tight ends one is now in the NFL (Theo Johnson) while the other tied the team lead with 7 touchdowns. Allar will get one of his top tight ends back in Tyler Warren. Regardless, the run game will likely be great again, but for Allar to have any hope of raising his draft stock we will need to see him lead his receivers to more production.
Strengths:
- Josh Allen 2.0? At least this was an early comp given to Allar. He displays the same arm strength with some upside rushing ability.
- Precision. He has an overall good release getting the ball out quickly to his receivers.
- Confidence. Allar stands poised in the pocket unfazed when the pocket collapses.
- Prototypical size. At 6’5 about 240 pounds he hovers over his offense line able to see everything down the field.
- IQ. He takes his time scanning the field or adjusting the plays pre-snap.
- Toughness. Maybe it is because of his size, but he can absorb contact from any defender shaking it off on the next play.
Areas of Improvement
- Mobility. His toughness hurts him as he does not run away from contact even though at times he displays that he can do so.
- Inconsistency. Allar shows signs of greatness with beautiful ball placement, but the very next play can be the polar opposite with inaccuracy or overthrowing his receivers.
- Pocket passer. Not that being a pocket passer is bad, but then his accuracy needs to rise. He has shown flashes of his mobility, but if it were up to him he would just stay in the pocket rather than try to extend the play with his feet.
Draft Stock: Eligible 2025
Consensus Projected Draft Capital: Day 3 prospect
Personal Projected Draft Capital: Day 3 – Round 5 or later prospect
Ideal Landing Spot: New York Giants
Drew Allar could slip into the day 2 draft capital, but this is assuming he just has a massive season this year displaying his cannon arm. He has the talent, but the unfortunate part is the offense does not run through his arm. Allar will need to step up and become the true leader of the Nittany Lions to at least hope for day 2 draft capital. However, for the reason of Penn State likely continuing to run through their running backs, I believe Allar will be a day 3 draft pick.
Additional Thoughts
Hear me out. What if Daniel Jones has a good season, good enough that the Giants say okay we can role with you for another year. I do have them as a bottom 5 team next year, but what if that is because the defense does not show up? The 2025 draft class is going to be filled with a plethora of defensive talent. So, what if instead of taking a quarterback in the first round the Giants beef up their defense, or maybe draft the first wide receiver off the board to pair with Malik Nabers? Now that is a lot of hypotheticals.
But Allar could be what the Giants want in a quarterback. This young man oozes talent, however, he still needs some coaching to polish the rough edges. I believe in a perfect world the Giants would much rather run their offense through the arm of Daniel Jones rather than rely on their running game. The issue is Daniel Jones can throw it deep, but his accuracy on those throws is far from precise. Plus, Jones has some injury concerns. Insert Drew Allar. Even as a day 3 pick he could be a potential starter in the NFL one day. The bright side is that the team paying him way less than what they are paying Daniel Jones. The downside is that Allar might not be much of an improvement as a rookie since he shows similar areas of improvement as Jones does.
Fantasy Impact
Allar’s potential impact will depend heavily on his development and landing spot. He could become a fantasy asset with his combination of size, arm strength, and mobility, akin to quarterbacks like Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. His upside includes the ability to score through the air and on the ground, making him a potential dual threat in fantasy lineups. However, the downside is substantial as well; many college stars struggle to adapt to the NFL’s complexity and faster pace. Additionally, if Allar lands with a team lacking a strong supporting cast or offensive line, his production could be hindered, reducing his fantasy value.
Think of Allar as a Sam Howell type of quarterback. He will not start day one, but if he gets a shot there could be some fantasy upside. When, or if, he gets that starting job Allar could offer QB2 upside. Again he has the arm strength to make the NFL throws, but he needs to work on his accuracy. His floor would be a QB3 or a Mac Jones, type of player. His receivers will play a factor in his fantasy upside.
I see Allar as a quarterback who can be great if he has great receivers to throw to. On the other hand, I also see him as a quarterback who does not elevate his receivers as much as they can elevate him. Right now, he is not the quarterback I would want to build around for my fantasy team. He is more of a developmental piece for a taxi squad.
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