An NFL survivor pool is a wonderful thing. Much like sports betting, it gives casual fans something to cheer for when they don’t have the time for fantasy sports. As simple as it sounds to pick one winner each week, there is a lot more that you must consider. I will discuss point spreads, ownership rates, injuries, and weather each week. This will help you decide which team you should choose for your pool. I’ll offer a multi-faceted approach that will give you several options for each week. These options are based on your level of risk tolerance. This is The FFU NFL Survivor Pool Guide: Week 1 Edition.
As a side note: The Fantasy Football Universe also runs an NFL Survivor Pool as a control group. You can find the group here to follow along. I will refer to the pool in this series and provide updates to show how we play each week. After all, you can’t trust our advice if we don’t follow it ourselves. Also, check out The FFU Survivor Pool Crash Course tutorial.
Week 1 Pick Distribution
The Safe Route
Cincinnati Bengals, 42.99% ownership (-9.0) vs. New England Patriots, 0.17% ownership: The Bengals are coming off the worst season of the Joe Burrow era because they played most of the season without Burrow. Once Burrow steps back on the field with his dynamic duo of Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, they should instantly be favored to beat New England by double-digits. This isn’t the Patriots squad you grew up with. This roster is a total mess devoid of any guaranteed studs on the offensive side of the ball. It’s going to be a rough year for New England and a bounce-back year for Cincinnati, those trends should start emphatically in this Week 1 blowout.
Risk= 1
The Sneaky Value Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2.91% ownership (-3.0) vs. Washington Commanders, 0.14% ownership: The Buccaneers were a surprising contender in 2023 but seem to be the least hyped contender in the NFC this offseason. Add in a boatload of hype around Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and we quickly see a Week 1 line that is far closer than it should be. The Buccaneers are easily the better team here and their experience should quickly overwhelm a quarterback making his first NFL start. Tampa Bay will win and cover this one easily. Add in the fact that they are only the seventh most chosen team at this point and they are an immense value.
Risk= 4
The Upset Special
Indianapolis Colts, 0.11% ownership (+2.5) vs. Houston Texans, 1.81% ownership: The Texans were the bell of the ball last year in the AFC as rookie quarterback CJ Stroud dominated after Anthony Richardson was lost to injury. Well, Richardson is back and healthy and Stroud is due for some regression. I’m not saying that the Texans or Stroud are going to be bad, but these two teams should be a pick ’em. The Colts are similar to the Texans and could easily pull this one out, so if you want to start your season off with a calculated gamble, pick the Colts in a tough divisional battle. Indianapolis is right off the board in pick distribution, so if you pick them and they win, you will likely use a team that none of your league mates used.
Risk = 9
The Must Avoid
Kansas City Chiefs, 1.90% ownership (-3.0) vs. Baltimore Ravens, 0.50% ownership: It’s easy to see why this game is a must avoid. In most cases, the Thursday Night Football game is a solid one to avoid due to the inherent chaos it normally produces from a short practice week, but this goes even further. This is a likely preview of the AFC Championship game and is far too close to pick a winner. The Chiefs are favored by three, but that’s being extremely generous, even for the defending Super Bowl champions. This should be a fun game to watch, but it’s not one that I want to choose a team in. Hard Pass!
Risk = 9
If you enjoyed NFL Survivor Pool Guide: Super Bowl 58, check out how last week’s picks fared on The Fantasy Football Universe Survivor Pool Home Page.
