Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 12, where we dissect the biggest narratives from the NFL week and season. Week 11 is mostly in the books… time to overreact.
Taysom Hill is an Every Week Must-Start TE
Yessir.
Hill was awesome this week, posting the best fantasy outing of his career and making history in the process:
https://x.com/NFLonCBS/status/1858274874885640506
We all know Taysom is a do-it-all player, but his TE eligibility makes him extra valuable in all fantasy formats. Especially in Tight End Premium (TEP) leagues, you want a piece of Taysom. If he’s on waivers, I’m dropping my remaining FAAB on him. Here’s why:
First, he’s got little competition for touches given how injured the Saints are at every skill position. He had 15 in Week 11 alone, not including the two passes he threw. Next, he’s got a career 5.6 yards per rushing attempt on 426 total carries. That places him fifth all-time behind only Michael Vick, Randall Cunningham, Lamar Jackson and 1950’s two-way player Marion Motley. And finally, the TE position is boom/bust weekly. Why not start a guy with week-winning potential from here on out?
After the Saints Week 12 bye, it’s the Rams, Giants, Commanders, Packers and Raiders. Taysom Hill could be a league winner.
Bottom Line: Hill is a weekly Boom/Bust option that will win you another week or two down the stretch. And with a beat up Saints roster and an exceptional schedule, he’s a weekly TE and flex consideration
The Best Rookie QB This Season Is Bo Nix
You should already know the answer to this one… but you might be surprised to know that it’s not even close.
Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, no rookie quarterback had thrown a touchdown. Then Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams each threw two in Week 3. But Week 4 began the Bo Nix ascension and he’s progressed nearly every week. So much so, that he’s been the premier rookie QB over the past month:
https://x.com/fballforeverhq/status/1858334554479542354
Part of the credit needs to go to Sean Payton for helping to develop Nix in short order. A good portion of the credit goes to Nix himself for taking advantage of what defenses are giving him. But it’s also telling that, for a QB we expect to tun to provide fantasy value, Nix has just 5 attempts for 0 yards and 0 TDs over his last two weeks. And, in that span, he’s still finished as a QB1 both times.
In fact, Nix is currently the QB7 on the season with a dynamite schedule ahead and his weapons healthy and clicking. The Broncos continue to prove that they’re not only a playoff hoopeful, but also a team to be reckoned with.
Bo Nix is a league winning QB. If your league hasn’t yet recognized this fact, you need to grab him now before they do.
Bottom Line: Nix is capable of carrying managers to a fantasy championship this season. And the Broncos are in the playoff hunt, and looking very, very good
Javonte Williams is the Denver Back to Own
I’m not embarrassed to say that I have no idea if this is true or not.
Sean Payton knows how to win. He seems to know how to develop and utilize talent on his roster. And he loves to deploy his running backs. The thing is, we still have no clue what’s happening in Denver’s backfield:
https://x.com/RyanJ_Heath/status/1858334334861648331
According to Ryan’s calculations, the hot-hand approach certainly appears to be in full effect. But it’s also more than likely that Javonte is the first man up on a weekly basis. Neither Audric Estime or Jaleel McLaughlin has Williams’s combination of size and athleticism. Neither poses a threat in both the running and receiving game like Javonte. And it’s that versatility that should see Williams as the clear-cut 1A in this backfield.
But does it? I have no idea.
Until further notice, we bet on Javonte. But if Denver truly does trust Estime in positive game scripts, the committee could unfortunately continue for the rest of the season.
Bottom Line: With Estime and McLaughlin taking meaning snaps in the Denver backfield, I have no clue how to suss this situation out week to week. What I do know is I’ll bet on Williams over the other options here
You Can Fire Up Tee Higgins Each and Every Week
Yes. No question.
I think we all agree that Tee Higgins is a monster wide receiver. He’s everything you could ever want in an alpha. And the Bengals have been greedy and they’ve wanted two of the best wideouts in the NFL. And in case you were unsure that you believed that last sentence, here’s a fun stat to prove my point:
https://x.com/GuruFantasyWrld/status/1858373725525045681
When Higgins is out there, he’s a WR1. You play him each and every week. But you got him for the cost of a WR2, so he’s potentially carrying you to victory each week.
But here’s the real point on Tee: he’s got more than a few boom weeks left in him.
After next week’s bye, the Bengals face the Steelers, Cowboys, Titans, Browns and Broncos. Given how those matchups project and Cincy’s terrible defense, Higgins should eat more often than not.
With Burrow slinging the rock and the 4-7 Bengals constantly playing catch up, Tee has the opportunity to save Cincinnati’s season and your fantasy championship hopes in one fell swoop. Buy in.
Bottom Line: Burrow is balling, and Tee benefits from the WR1 in all of fantasy playing opposite him. The schedule is also sweet. Just don’t play Tee next week with the Bengals on bye
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle Have a Jonnu Smith Problem
Somehow, inexplicably, they do.
We all knew this was a Jonny Smith game. We all knew not to trust Jaylen Waddle. We all knew Tyreek Hill was capped in a great matchup. Sadly, we were all right. In fact, this has been the case since Week 5, that has Jonnu averaging 6.5 targets, 5 receptions, 61.7 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game over the last month and a half. And also in that span, he’s accomplished this:
https://twitter.com/NFL_TStrack/status/1858448387797922115
Tyreek Hill is having next-level issues with Jonnu Smith in the lineup. And coupled with his own health concerns, it’s unlikely to get significantly better for him down the stretch. That’s not to say that they can’t co-exist in this offense, but his target share doesn’t appear to be going anywhere:
https://twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/1855970362153943383
All of this is to say that Jonnu is a weekly consideration at TE. He also nullifies any hope we had for Jaylen Waddle in the back-half of the year. Tyreek Hill also maintains a lower floor thanks to the Dolphins reliance on Smith. And, oh yeah, Miami is back to winning games on the Jonnu Smith plan.
I expect this usage to continue as Miami continues to pile on the points. In this offense, you want De’Von Achane… then it’s a toss up between Tyreek and Jonnu. 2024 is wild as hell.
Bottom Line: Smith is often left wide open and, if he is covered, he’s never doubled. It’s impossible to attend to all the options Miami rolls out against opposing defenses, so Smith should continue to eat
To see how far these players have risen and fallen in our rankings, head over to the Fantasy Football Universe Rankings Home Page, you can also check out all our daily video content on The FFU YouTube Channel.
