Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 15, where we dissect the biggest narratives from the NFL week and season. Week 14 is nearly complete… but we’re not gonna let that stop us from overreacting. Let’s get to it!
Sam Darnold Is Legit
As a fantasy option, absolutely… for now.
Darnold currently sits as the QB7 on the season through 14 weeks. And, he’s also been balling out all season long in this Vikings offense. A big part of this is the Kevin O’Connell offense. Another big part are the weapons in Minnesota. But, we’ll give Darnold his credit, too, for executing as well as he has:
https://twitter.com/pff/status/1866120617457782848?s=46&t=tSz_wJ2X2BeG60hcEEixoQ
In 13 games thus far, Darnold has been a QB1 seven times… so more than half. He’s also only had two complete bust games this season. Although I haven’t been consistently happy with the productions of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson, Darnold has been very good most weeks.
Will his production continue for the rest of the season? I think so. Is he a legit NFL quarterback? He might be. Will he continue to thrive on a new team next season? I doubt it. But ride the wave as long as he’s in Minnesota.
Bottom Line: Darnold is balling. Against Chicago, Seattle and Green Bay ROS, he’s a viable starting option. Is he legit? For 2024, yes he is…
Zach Charbonnet Has Earned More Playing Time in Seattle
I hope so after that performance… but I have no idea.
The Arizona defense has actually been pretty good this season. And the Seattle offense has had their missteps, especially with a poor offensive line across the board. Too bad someone forgot to tell Zach Charbonnet. He’s been awesome when placed in the driver’s seat this season:
https://twitter.com/hawkblogger/status/1865970294403604612?s=46&t=tSz_wJ2X2BeG60hcEEixoQ
To take this a step further, there’s actually been three games when Charbonnet has seen over 80% of snaps. In those games, he’s finished as the half ppr RB12, 6 and 1 overall.
Don’t get me wrong; I love Kenneth Walker. He’s a great back in the league and fits this new scheme pretty well. But he’s often hurt. And with the rest of his season somewhat in doubt – at least his availability next week in doubt – Charbonnet has a chance to see a lot more playing time as the Seahawks prepare for the reality playoffs.
Bottom Line: Especially with everything Walker is dealing with concerning his body, Charbonnet should continue to see steady work. Fire him up, even if Walker is active, until further notice
The Guy to Flex in Your Fantasy Playoffs Is Jordan Addison
I get it… I just can’t do it.
But, with that said, Jordan Addison has been a monster over the last month. Even with TJ Hockenson back in the fold in Minnesota, Addison has finished as the WR22, 1, 47 and 3 in half ppr leagues over the past month. His boom/bust nature is apparent, but the booms have been glorious:
https://x.com/vikingspr/status/1865858977558364540?s=46&t=tSz_wJ2X2BeG60hcEEixoQ
Remember: this is a franchise that started a prime Chris Carter alongside budding superstar Randy Moss. This stat is actually insane.
But what else is insane is relying on Addison for your playoff run. He’s got a great run out as far as the schedule is concerned, but I also expect Hockenson and Aaron Jones to have good games here. The problem is predicting when each stud will go off. That includes Justin Jefferson, who has been consistently very good but not his normal spectacular fantasy self this season.
Bottom Line: Addison gets another nice couple of matchups as listed above when discussing Darnold, but is his production here to stay? My guess is no
Jalen McMillan Is a Fantasy Viable WR ROS
It would be nice if this could be true. But I’m not betting on McMillan just yet.
The rookie had a great game in Week 14 to be sure, but it still came off the back of extreme efficiency. I wish we could count on 7 targets per week for McMillan, but those targets came at the expense of Mike Evans and the backs in this one. Taking nothing away from the rookie, sometimes we can get out-of-pocket watching the scoreboard:
https://twitter.com/musebaker/status/1865867680433021208?s=46&t=tSz_wJ2X2BeG60hcEEixoQ
This stat is obviously factitious, but there is nothing to joke about regarding Tampa’s rookie wideout. Is this a sign of things to come? Absolutely. But this is also not the way Tampa hopes to design their offense.
I love the player, but there are at least 3 other healthy targets who come first in the Bucs pecking order. So while the two touchdowns on four receptions is nice, I can’t count on that when the fantasy games count more.
Bottom Line: McMillan does indeed have a bright future, but the future is not now. At least not consistently. At the moment, he’s more of a desperation play than a reliable one
Start Isaiah Davis Over Braelon If Breece Remains Out
I actually prefer Braelon Allen… but you can and should play both backs.
Davis was absolutely the more explosive of the two backs on Sunday. His tape was much more impressive. But the 50/50 workload split is unlikely to be a mirage here. The rookies were interchangeable on in Week 14 and likely going forward:
https://twitter.com/jagibbs_23/status/1865905801942213097?s=46&t=tSz_wJ2X2BeG60hcEEixoQ
Where I’ll hang my fantasy hat, however, is on the size of Allen. He’s a big boy and still incredibly young. The learning curve hasn’t been a big problem for him though, and his size presents a big problem for opposing defenses at the goal line.
In an Aaron Rodgers-lead offense, lesser RBs are unlikely to see a ton of goal line work. The vet, future HOF QB will happily throw it in from the 1-yard line. But, I’d bet on Allen getting those valuable goal line carries 9 out of 10 times over Davis. Everything else being equal, at least for now, I’ll take Braelon.
Bottom Line: I like Davis and he looked great, but grabbing the goal line work consistently over Allen is some serious wish casting. Still, if Breece remains out, you can play both backs ROS
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