Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 3, where we look at some of the biggest narratives from the NFL season thus far. Week 2 provided us with a more stable picture of expected fantasy production, so let’s take a look at how it all went down.
Sam LaPorta Is Cooked in Detroit
This is sadly true. At least for fantasy. LaPorta is a little overdone, but so is this offense. There is no need for Jameson Williams to be balling out week-after-week… yet here we are. LaPorta has been an afterthought in this offense, and unless someone goes out with injury, he’s looking more like the fourth option than the first or second on a weekly basis.
It’s purely a volume concern. And while LaPorta saw 5 targets in Week 1, he only saw 3 in Week 2. At the same time, Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown recorded double-digit targets and Jahmyr Gibbs had 7 more to himself. But what’s really concerning is that LaPorta was out targeted this week by Kalif Raymond and David Montgomery. He also earned the same amount of targets as Tim Patrick, who signed a few weeks ago and saw his first game action for Detroit this weekend.
And then, there’s this:
St. Brown has a potential injury concern that could keep him out next week. If so, LaPorta should return to his voluminous ways. But with Jameson getting open at will and Jahmyr looking dynamic as ever, LaPorta all-of-a-sudden finds himself as the odd man out most weeks.
Bottom Line: It’s time to sell LaPorta for another top TE… but do it after a good performance
Garrett Wilson is Not the WR1 That Was Promised
Thankfully, this is patently untrue. The talent is there for Wilson to succeed, and Aaron Rodgers is getting more comfortable by the week. Still, the volume we expected for Wilson should look a lot more like what Malik Nabers saw in Week 2. Instead, Wilson sees 12 receivers ahead of him in targets while he’s slumming around with the likes of Christian Watson and Ladd McConkey on a fantasy points per game level.
Of course, it’s not time to panic. Just like Dwain suggests:
There will be plenty more games for Wilson to deliver. He hasn’t yet reached the end zone and his schedule is much more favourable in the second half of the season. You may have to weather a few more down games, but Wilson is still a top-12 WR this season.
Bottom Line: Don’t lose hope! Better days are ahead, so stay the course
The Rams Offense is Overrated
Not quite, but it’s at least a rated higher than it should be. Matthew Stafford has been hurried and sacked a ton this season, while his weapons are dropping like flies. The 0-2 Rams have also given up the second-most points through two weeks, barely edging out the lowly Carolina Panthers. It’s looking bad in LA.
But, aside from injury, this is the situation we want for fantasy. The problem, however, is compounded by a bad offensive line. And, still, Stafford has been slinging it, regardless of the issues around him.
But it’s not looking good for the near future:
We need to see Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and Tyler Higbee return from injury. But in the meantime, Stafford will have to keep chucking it and whoever is running routes will benefit.
Bottom Line: It’s still a great situation for fantasy, so grab Rams WRs off the waiver wire
Smaller, Pass Catching Backs Are the RBs to Own
With the play of Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner and JK Dobbins early on, you would think the answer is no. But the fact is that Alvin Kamara, De’Von Achane and James Cook are RBs 1, 2, and 4, respectively, in half ppr leagues.
It’s no secret that we want the Breece Halls and Bijan Robinsons of the fantasy world: backs who can both pound the ball up the middle and use their size while also being athletic enough to be a receiving threat out of the backfield. But that level of size and athleticism is still rare, even in the NFL. Aside from Hall, Robinson, Saquon Barkley and maybe Isiah Pacheco, most RBs who fit the desired mold are hovering around 200 pounds, as opposed to the desired 220.
Kamara himself has always been a bigger-than-advertised back at 215 pounds. But that still leaves the diminutive Gibbs, Achane and Cook, who thrive with lesser frames. It also means I’m taking bets on other smaller backs who are buy-lows at the moment… in hopes, that they can do this:
The usage for these backs is the real issue, but Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones and Jerome Ford are seeing the targets we want to see at the position, even at a smaller-than-ideal size. And, although not the large, freaky RB1s we might expect, they could once again see the usage that propels them to high-end RB status in 2024.
Bottom Line: Size doesn’t matter. Find RBs with target volume, regardless of size
Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr Will Lead MVP Talks All Season
There’s no chance… but not so fast.
Both in new, less restrictive offenses this season, Mayfield and Carr are the #1 and #2 QBs in fantasy, respectively. Now they both had Week 1 cakewalks, but the Buccaneers beat an excellent Lions team on the road in Week 2. In that game, Baker used his legs when he couldn’t get it done with his arm, putting the team on his back and leading them to a narrow victory. Not to be outdone, Carr and Kamara slaughtered the Cowboys in Dallas.
Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans are 2-0 to start the young season and both QBs have stood out. Both signal callers have a bevy of weapons at their disposal at all levels of the field and coordinators who are trusting them to throw downfield:
I’m expecting both teams to keep chucking it. And we know that they can run the ball when they need to. But, according to Fantasy Pros, only Carr has the favourable schedule across the season. Still, Mayfield has already proven he can win against stiff competition, so I’m buying both to maintain their high level of play this season.
Bottom Line: One likely drops out later on, but I’m betting both challenge for career years in 2024
To see how far these players have risen and fallen in our rankings, head over to the Fantasy Football Universe Rankings Home Page, you can also check out all our daily video content on The FFU YouTube Channel.
