Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 4, where we look at some of the biggest narratives from the NFL season thus far. Week 3 was another wild and unpredictable week of action with a ton to overreact to… so let’s get to it.
Andy Dalton Will Save the Panthers Season
This is a no in reality. In fantasy, however, there’s a good chance this is true.
Dalton came in on Sunday, having sat out almost all of last season, and absolutely torched the Las Vegas defense. Dalton was deadly accurate practically all day, as he threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. In fact, this:
The Panthers will face tougher competition and their defense will struggle, but their offense was humming this week. Dalton himself finished as the QB5 in 4pt per passing touchdown leagues while Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson also finished fifth in points at their respective positions in half ppr. Dalton is proving he can support fantasy options and, in good matchups, their ceilings are clear.
But let’s not gt ahead of ourselves. Dalton was great in this one, but he’s still a QB who is past his prime and is bound to regress from this hot start.
Bottom Line: Dalton is a prime sell candidate, especially since he’s facing a good Bengals secondary in Week 4
Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce Are Cooked
Probably, yeah. Damn…
The issue here doesn’t seem to be one of a drastic decline in talent for either player. It’s more of a usage issue.
For Andrews, the Baltimore offensive line has declined so significantly in one offseason, that Andrews has become a de facto offensive tackle:
He’s also playing less, leading some to speculate that his injury from last year is still lingering. Whatever the reason, the Ravens proved once again that their run-first mentality can kill the passing game for fantasy production. It’s a situation we hate for fantasy.
As far as Kelce is concerned, some are speculating he’s lost his ability or his desire for the game. Personally, I think it’s more that Rashee Rice has surpassed him given their respective career arcs, and they both occupy the same relative area of the field. For some perspective, Rice has 29 targets on the season to Kelce’s 12, even though Kelce is second on the team in targets. And there’s also the matter of his production:
Neither tight end is finding the end zone while both are playing second fiddle to second-year WRs on their team. It’s hard to see either turning back the clock, but both should improve going forward. How much they improve is the question.
Bottom Line: I’m still holding out hope, but it’s rough. Sell if you can
The Rashid Shaheed Breakout Was a Mirage
This is a lie. Don’t buy the narrative.
Rashid Shaheed had been hyper efficient through two weeks of NFL play, but he’s also a damn good wide receiver. Mostly, Shaheed is speed, but it’s his hands that can really dampen his production on a weekly basis:
This is not the first time we’ve seen Shaheed struggle to corral the ball over the course of his career, but thankfully he’s usually much more open and the ball is usually much less under thrown.
The boom/bust fantasy nature of deep threat wide receivers is well documented. We say Xavier Worthy and Jameson Williams experience the same issues as Shaheed this week. But keep rolling him out there. The Saints will find a more suitable middle ground and keeping putting up points this season. Don’t be too worried about this one.
Bottom Line: Keep riding Shaheed, even though he’s more boom/bust than we’d hoped…
Sam Darnold is Must-Start in Superflex Leagues
Yes. And he’s a must-start in 1QB leagues at the moment, too.
Darnold is your leader in the clubhouse through (almost) three full weeks in the NFL in touchdown passes. I’ll take Exactly What We All Expected for $300, Alex:
After being in jeopardy of losing his career at the hands of Adam Gase in New York, Darnold has bounced around the league and managed to resurrect his career. While I view his current situation more like Brock Purdy’s in San Francisco – an offensive mastermind coach running an elite scheme with a capable talent at QB – it doesn’t matter as long as Darnold is the guy in Minnesota.
Given JJ McCarthy’s injury status, Darnold is the Vikings’ guy for at least this season. Play him weekly.
Bottom Line: Fire Darnold up in all leagues until he proves otherwise
Jauan Jennings is the 49ers WR to Own Right Now
False. Don’t buy the hype.
I will buy the hype in fantasy for the foreseeable future with both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out. However, I’m not capable of ranking Brandon Aiyuk below Jennings at this time.
It was an amazing 11 reception, 175 yard, 3 TD effort by Jennings in Week 3, but the Rams defense has been atrocious this season. Aiyuk also earned 10 targets to Jennings’ 12, so it’s not like he became an afterthought in this offense. But we also didn’t see this coming:
With the Patriots up next week and Samuel and Kittle still ailing, I’ll probably give the edge to Aiyuk despite the fact that he’s likely to receive the Christian Gonzalez treatment. And, like Justin Jefferson put it last week: with respect, Jauan Jennings is not Brandon Aiyuk.
Bottom Line: Follow the money to make money and bet on Aiyuk’s talent over Jennings
To see how far these players have risen and fallen in our rankings, head over to the Fantasy Football Universe Rankings Home Page, you can also check out all our daily video content on The FFU YouTube Channel.
