Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 5, where we look at some of the biggest narratives from the NFL season thus far. Week 4 was another wild and unpredictable week of action with a ton to overreact to… so let’s get to it.
When Taysom Hill Plays, He’s a Must-Start TE
This one is, sadly, true. Taysom is a necessary addition to your TE room, even if he ends up on the shelf with bruised ribs for the next few weeks.
Before this breakout week, Hill had played sparingly in just two games. But it’s overwhelmingly clear that he is the game plan most of the time he’s in the game. That wass especially true with Alvin Kamara on the mend from an injury himself this week.
But, in the past (like this past week), we would have faded Hill. He’s just been far too inconsistent. Even the best us us never knew when to trust him:
But what has become different this season is how unreliable the tight end position has become. Instead of heavy and steady target volume for Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and others, we instead regularly see zeroes in our lineups for starting these guys. And with injuries to Trey McBride, David Njoku and more early on this season, any warm bodies running routes have been viable options to plug in at TE.
Instead of flying blind with Tyler Conklin and Elijah Higgins, just shoot for the upside Taysom provides. It could be, and already has been, a lot worse in 2024 at the position.
Bottom Line: Start Hill and pray its one of those games. He’ll give you at least 4 boom games a year
Brian Robinson is THE Robinson to Own in Fantasy
Once again, this is sadly correct.
Bijan Robinson is a supreme NFL talent. His vision, athleticism and understanding of the game are second to none. Many, including myself, ranked him over Christian McCaffrey as the RB1 in dynasty circles. It turns out, we had the wrong Robinson.
In just his third NFL season, Brian Robinson is making waves. Now armed with a superstar quarterback, the Commanders offense is humming and Robinson is a key cog in the wheel that just keeps scoring.
Brian is the half ppr RB9 before Week 4’s Monday night games. And, given the backfield split in Washington, he’s doing it on just 64% of snaps. We’ve seen Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols both cut into the elder Robinson’s touches, but he’s far too good for it to matter.
Given their roles and situations, it’s not longer a hot take to put Brian over Bijan for the rest of this season.
Bottom Line: Flip a coin. Both Robinsons are elite fantasy assets, but only Brian is currently an RB1
Jayden Daniels Will Fade After His Hot Start
This is a flat-out lie.
Daniels is off to one of the best starts in NFL history for a rookie QB, but oddly enough, it’s his passing that has been the exceptional part of his game.
We know Daniels is one of the best rushing QBs to enter the league since Lamar Jackson, and his 54 yards per game on the ground thus far is testament to that fact. But what’s been absolutely insane to witness is his all-time passing efficiency marks so far in 2024:
To be crystal clear, Jayden Daniels, in a Kliff Kingsbury offense no less, has the highest completion percentage in the history of the game through the first month of action. In HIS first 4 NFL games ever.
Let that sink in. Also let it sink in that Daniels led 16 straight scoring drives before the Cardinals miraculously intercepted him in the 2nd quarter of yesterday’s game. It’s been a historic run for the rookie, but we should already know not to bet against historic runs.
Daniels could fade some over the back half of the season, but there is just no accounting for his talent. He’s the QB1 through the first month of the season and, the QB2? It’s Lamar Jackson. There is just no stopping the true dual threat QB. And Daniels is just that.
Bottom Line: Even if he falls off slightly, he’s still a monster talent putting up historic numbers. Do not fade him!
Xavier Worthy is Next Up in KC
I’m conservatively buying in to this take. Conservatively.
We saw Worthy come alive after Rice unfortunately went out early in yesterday’s contest when Patrick Mahomes missed his target and instead found Rice’s knee with his helmet. The fear right now is a torn ACL, so it leaves us wondering who will fill the massive production hole left by Rice’s absence.
It certainly could be Worthy, who is not only the fastest human ever to test in the NFL Combine, but who is also a very good WR in his own right. We saw just how good he is last night, catching a 54-yard bomb from Mahomes in the end zone, tracking the ball exceptionally and coming down with it in traffic.
But, thus far, Worthy hasn’t utilized his skills like Rice has. He’s been the deep threat in this offense while Rice has run crossers and short-to-intermediate route concepts. That hole in the offense, instead, should belong to Travis Kelce. But it remains to be seen what Andy Reid will cook up:
It’s true that Travis Kelce had his best game of the season once Rice went out. It’s also true that Noah Gray saw an increased role, one that he has proven capable of occupying in the past. But Worthy is the talent to bet on here.
Although it hasn’t shown in his usage thus far, Worthy is the most dynamic threat left on this Chiefs offense. Reid and company have to utilize him more to open up Kelce and the rest of the sub-par athletes and talents on the roster. Worthy should see an uptick as a result of Rice’s injury.
Bottom Line: Buy in to Worthy’s ascension, but he’s a rookie so it may be another month before he really booms
Derrick Henry Reigns Supreme
The King is very much NOT dead. Henry is still the head of the league.
Derrick Henry is unfortunately not the RB1 so far this season in half ppr. He’s the RB3 behind only a sensational Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley. Henry landed in the ideal situation this offseason by going to Baltimore, and it’s already paying off handsomely:
The only thing detractors have ever pointed to with Henry have been age. Outside of being 30 years old, Henry has always been the same old amazing freak of a running back. And he’s doing it yet again.
Any one at any time can get injured. Justice Hill looked exceptional last night in his own right. Lamar Jackson is always a threat on the ground. And still, King Henry wears the crown in this offense… and it’s not even winter yet.
Bottom Line: Winter is coming. Bet on King Henry to assert his dominance all season long
To see how far these players have risen and fallen in our rankings, head over to the Fantasy Football Universe Rankings Home Page, you can also check out all our daily video content on The FFU YouTube Channel.
