Welcome to Overreaction Monday: Week 8, where we look at some of the biggest narratives from the NFL season thus far. Week 7 gave us plenty to overreact to… so let’s get into it.
Jahmyr Gibbs Is an RB1 ROS
Sadly, I’m pumping the breaks on this one.
With David Montgomery limited after a 1st quarter knee injury, Gibbs went off in Week 7. His 19 touches were his second highest total on the season, and it translated to the production we love for fantasy.
But it should be no surprise that Gibbs was capable of high-end RB1 production:
However, I’m pumping the breaks on the breakout. David Montgomery was healthy enough to return to action and isn’t expected to miss any time. Could Gibbs earn more of a rushing share with Monty on the mend? Sure. Is he likely to run two touchdowns per week in on the ground? Not a chance.
Bottom Line: Gibbs is locked in to your lineups regardless, but he’s more of a high-end RB 2 with weekly RB1 upside than a locked-and-loaded RB1.
Sam LaPorta Is Toast
The veritable hellscape that has been the TE position means that, more and more, we are looking for stability at the position.
Unfortunately, Sam LaPorta is not that stability.
The volume has simply evaporated in Ben Johnson’s offense for the talented tight end:
A 10% target share is not what we expected headed into the 2024 season. Especially so after seeing north of 21% a season ago.
One of the main issues driving down LaPorta’s targets this season has been the coming out party for Jameson Williams. But what we could not have seen coming is the offense pushing LaPorta into the Montgomery, Kalif Raymond, Tim Patrick tier of pass catchers.
It’s been a rough go for LaPorta and his fantasy managers, and it won’t get any better in the short and possibly long term either.
Bottom Line: You’ve got to get out soon, or you’ll be left holding the bag. With everyone healthy and the offense cooking, LaPorta is the opposite of necessary for the Lions and for your fantasy team.
The Pittsburgh Offense Just Needed Russell Wilson
Amazingly, especially after the debacle in Denver, this is true.
Wilson looked great against a good Jets D last night, even if they were down multiple starters in their secondary. It was a best-case season debut for the 35-year-old signal caller, he was chucking it all over the yard and single-handedly bringing George Pickens back from the fantasy grave.
And with Russ cooking in the passing game, the run game worked as well. The Steelers had it all going on en route to a blowout victory:
But the issue has always been Wilson’s integration into the team. MarShawn Lynch, Richard Sherman and others have commented on Russ’s lack of chemistry in Seattle. Wilson quickly washed out of Denver with multiple memes stemming from his Subway commercials to the disdain of his teammates on the sidelines.
But Russ doesn’t need a personality if he’s going to keep playing like this. As long as he can keep cooking, Chef Wilson is a fantasy QB you’ll want to start each week.
Bottom Line: With the Giants next up and the Commanders and Ravens after a bye, the next month looks juicy for this week’s QB1. Buy in.
Javonte Williams is Now Locked In to Your Lineups
Not quite.
After facing a nearly broken New Orleans run defense and having a field day, Williams still has some work to do to become more than a plug-and-play flex option each week. But, with Carolina next on the schedule, Javonte should each again in Week 8.
And why not? His usage has been there all season long:
Regression states that Javonte is bound for some big games. That’s clearly JJ’s point above from last week.
But unless Williams finds himself in a juicy matchup, he’s not a lock to start on my fantasy squads. Thankfully, he’s got plenty of them left on the schedule, including in Weeks 15 (Indy) and 17 (Cincy).
If I’m a contender, I’ll buy in to Javonte, but I’m only valuing him as a flex option with boom potential in plus matchups.
Bottom Line: You’re only playing Javonte in half the remaining matchups, unless you have no other choice. But he should go off when it matters most.
The Fantasy Ship Has Sailed on Jerry Jeudy
Sad, but true… yes it has.
Jeudy was meant to be the beneficiary of Amari Cooper’s absence now that he’s been shipped to Buffalo. But the problem is, Jeudy just isn’t good enough to win consistently against #1 coverage. And, even when he was producing as the clear cut #2 option earlier in the year, he wasn’t competing with David Njoku or trying to earn targets from Jameis Winston.
And now, it’s possible things are getting worse for Jeudy than just a lack of production:
It’s clear that things have not gone Jeudy’s way, but pouting about usage on a 1-6 team instead of taking responsibility and stepping up to lead the team is a major concern. Additionally, Cedric Tillman led the way with Njoku, while Elijah Moore and Jordan Akins both had more targets than Jeudy.
Jerry is currently in the doghouse in the Dawg Pound, and the only way he gets out of it is with some monster production. Unfortunately, his bark seems much worse than his bite at this point.
Bottom Line: Jerry Jeudy SZN has been cancelled before it even got started. Just like Cleveland might, get out now while you still can.
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