Welcome to Underdog Slate Breakers (Week 1) for the 2024 NFL Season. Here we take a look at our three favorite props for each of the slates this week. We will look at Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, and Monday Night Football, and the 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM slates on Sunday. All these bets can be found over at Underdog Fantasy.
Sunday 1:00 PM Slate
Travis Etienne HIGHER than 63.5 rushing yards– The Miami Dolphins defense was gutted this offseason and could be among the worst in the NFL. For a workhorse that saw the volume of Etienne last year to only be projected for 63.5 rushing yards against this defense is insanely low. Take the over and laugh your way to the bank as he could top this one by halftime in what is likely to be a high-scoring shootout.
CJ Stroud LOWER than 271.5 passing yards– This total isn’t ridiculously high, but I’m skeptical of some slight statistical regression by Stroud in his sophomore season. I still expect him to be good, but in an average matchup at best, this passing yards total is too high for me and I’ll play it safe with the under.
Rhamondre Stevenson HIGHER than 63.5 rushing yards- Stevenson may be the only offensive weapon on New England behind one of the worst starting quarterbacks in NFL history. If the Patriots have any hope of staying in this game they are going to have to feed Stevenson insane volume. I’ll take the over on his rushing yards total but acknowledge that he will likely need to top the number by halftime as the Pats will likely be out of this in the second half.
Sunday 4:00 PM Slate
Geno Smith HIGHER than 238.5 passing yards– Smith looked like the Geno that was relegated to backup duty for most of his career last year and will hope to get back on track against one of the league’s most generous defenses last season. There is some talent in the Bronco’s secondary but that certainly hasn’t stopped them from giving up yards and points in bunches. Take the over and watch Geno get the season off on the right track.
CeeDee Lamb LOWER than 94.5 receiving yards– Lamb is the best weapon for Dak Prescott and it’s not even close. The problem is that every single player on an elite Brown’s defense knows that and he is sure to be double-teamed. I still expect Lamb to find a way to score, but this total is very high for the lone offensive weapons against a defense of this caliber.
Justin Herbert HIGHER than 239.5 passing yards– The fact that Herbert is facing the Raiders and is still projected for only 239.5 passing yards should tell you what a mess the Charger’s offense is. Sure, the Raiders improved on defense in the second half of last season, but they still weren’t great. Justin Herbert has enough talent to spread the ball to this group of misfit receivers and should top the number easily.
Sunday Night Football (Rams @ Lions)
Jared Goff HIGHER than 270.5 passing yards– this game projects to be an old-fashioned shootout between gunslingers who will want to one-up each other. I expect both quarterbacks to throw early and often and expect Goff to throw for well over 300 passing yards. Take what should be an easy over for Goff.
Kyren Williams LOWER than 57.5 rushing yards– last season Williams was a fantasy football game-breaker but in Week 1 he faces a Lions defense that holds most running backs under 44 yards rushing, so 57.5 is a tough ask for the sophomore who now has competition in the Rams backfield as well as a healthy Cooper Kupp who will command touches.
Sam LaPorta HIGHER than 5.0 receptions– Goff is going to throw a lot as I stated above, and he only has two proven weapons. I expect Amon-Ra St.Brown to lead the Lions in targets, but LaPorta should be a close second and push for close to 10 targets. Five receptions feels like an easy bar for LaPorta to exceed.
Monday Night Football (Jets @ 49ers)
Breece Hall HIGHER than 67.5 rushing yards– Hall is a solid candidate to lead the NFL in rushing and even though he opens up the season against one of the league’s premiere defenses, this rushing total is low enough that I will take the over. It’s not traditionally a solid bet to go against the 49er’s defense, but it’s tough to envision a scenario in which Hall finished this game with under 67 rushing yards. The Jets don’t have enough weapons on this roster to keep him from getting his.
Aaron Rodgers HIGHER than 231.5 passing yards– I expect the Jets to be trailing for much of this game and the only option they will have when not running Breece Hall will be to pass to Garrett Wilson. This total isn’t insanely high and feels like a safe bet even for an aging quarterback returning from injury to face an elite defense. Even when Rodgers is bad, he typically manages to top this total.
Deebo Samuel HIGHER than 56.5 receiving yards– Brandon Aiyuk has signed a contract extension and his addition to the 49ers lineup has driven down the Samuel receiving total. Receivers who miss training camp and the preseason due to holdouts traditionally take a bit of time to get up to game speed and I expect Brock Purdy to lean heavily on the veteran in this matchup with a solid Jets defense.
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