Welcome to Year 2 & 3 Breakouts to Target. Here we take a look at some of our favorite targets among year two and three players. This range is typically where we see players who haven’t quite met their full potential but who could explode onto the fantasy football scene in the right scenario. The ADP we will be using is from Fantasy Pros 1/2 PPR ADP.
Jameson Williams, WR (Lions)
To say it has been a rough two years to start Jameson Williams’ career would be an understatement. After being selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft he played in only six games as a rookie due to a serious injury sustained in the CFP Championship game. He showed serious deep-play potential in those six games, but nothing more. In 2023, he missed the first six games of the season as the result of a gambling suspension and once again struggled to get integrated into the suddenly high-flying Detroit Lions offense.
The Lions primarily used Williams as a field stretcher, but as the season went on, and even into the playoffs, Williams saw his role in the offense increase. His two highest-targeted games were the final two games of his regular season, showcasing how explosive he can be when the ball is put in his hands. The Lions added nothing but defense at the 2024 NFL Draft and if they are looking for an additional weapon they need look no further than Williams. Williams is likely to be a boom or bust-option, but his speed and massive deep-play talent give him a massive upside. If he can develop and take another step forward, Williams has Devonta Smith-like talent and upside, if not more.
Tyjae Spears, RB (Titans)
The expectations for Tyjae Spears were not very high heading into his rookie season. Unsettling medical reports and a spot on the depth chart behind Derrick Henry left him in the range of dart-throw. Spears would go on to finish as an RB3 even though he was nothing more than a backup for Henry. Despite his limited role, Spears rushed for more than 500 rushing yards and totaled just under 500 receiving yards, an impressive feat to say the least.
Heading into the 2024 season, Henry departed for Baltimore, and Tony Pollard was brought in to compete for the starting job with Spears. The worst-case scenario here is that this is a committee in which Spears will still return value on his current 10th-round ADP. If things fall in Spears’ favor, which is a very likely outcome, he has RB2 upside. This could be a perfect storm for Spears who is a fantasy stud in the making.
Jayden Reed, WR (Packers)
This Green Bay Packers receiving corps is an ever-changing puzzle that seemingly has no answer, but if training camp and the preseason mean anything (which is debatable), then Jayden Reed is going to be heavily involved in this Packers passing game. The knock on the Packers receivers has been that there are simply too many of them to pick one. While that is true to an extent, Reed is my choice to break out and emerge as the WR1 in Green Bay. Christian Watson may be the most talented of the bunch, but he seemingly can’t stay on the field, and Doubs, while healthy and talented seems to be nothing more than a mediocre receiver who produces at a flex-worthy level.
Despite being a rookie, Reed showed remarkable consistency from Week 1 to Week 18. It was easy to see that Jordan Love trusted him and looked for him early and often. He didn’t manage to crack the WR2 range, but finishing as WR25 is no small feat for a rookie. His solid rookie season that saw him total just under 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns went largely unnoticed with Puka Nacua breaking records everywhere. Reed likely won’t explode as a sophomore like Nacua did last year, but in the 11th round, he doesn’t need to. He will finish as a top 20 receiver, at a massive discount.
Chase Brown, RB (Bengals)
Chase Brown is the cheaper, under-the-radar version of Tyjae Spears. Like Spears, Brown was buried behind a consistent fantasy producer in Joe Mixon, although Spears was far more effective. Spears was, however, extremely explosive when he was on the field, as he missed five games last year. Much like Spears, the veteran in front of him has moved on and he finds himself competing for a starting role with a journeyman of sorts. Zack Moss proved last year with the Colts that he is capable of putting up big numbers when thrust into a starting role, but it remains to be seen if that was a one-year wonder situation.
The buzz out of Bengals camp and the preseason is that Brown has done more than enough to win the starting role, so it’s only a matter of time before his current 11th-round ADP begins to skyrocket. Brown is another case where his worst-case scenario is still going to massively outproduce his ADP, and if he hits his best-case scenario he is a league-winner in the making. If you are running back needy late in drafts, the duo of Spears and Brown offer unmatched upside at that price point.
Rashid Shaheed, WR (Saints)
As a rookie, Rashid Shaheed was nothing more than a rotational piece in a dysfunctional. Enter his sophomore season where he found himself as the defacto WR2 on the Saints in the wake of Michael Thomas driving full-speed ahead off the age cliff. This year, Shaheed is the unquestioned WR2 in New Orleans behind Chris Olave and with the new kickoff rules, he has a unique upside if your league counts kick and punt return stats.
Even in leagues where return stats aren’t a major factor, a receiver with a 700-yard floor is a great value in the 12th and even 13th rounds of fantasy drafts. Many fantasy managers have shied away from the relatively unknown receiver, in large part due to fears of investing in a Derek Carr-led offense, but at this price point, there is almost no downside in drafting him. Look at Shaheed as a free late-round shot at a WR2, if he misses, oh well, you only burned a 13th-round pick.
That concludes Year 2 & 3 Breakouts to Target. To see all of our rankings, check out The FFU consensus rankings page.
